ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
The evolution logic and optimisation strategies of China's emergency management system from the perspective of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (1949-2023).
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
The emergency management system constitutes the core of national emergency preparedness. Analysed through the lens of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), this study proposes a dual-driver model that integrates both exogenous focal events and endogenous ideological shifts-an amendment extending PET to account for top-down, state-led punctuations in China's governance context. Since 1949, the system has followed a pattern of gradual equilibrium, policy punctuation, and new equilibrium reconstruction. Four equilibrium periods are identified: disaster-specific management (1949-2002); "One Plan, Three Systems" integrated management (2003-2012); holistic national security outlook (2013-2018); and "Big Security - Big Emergency" integrated governance (2019-present). Three major punctuations and one institutional restructuring are traced. Key characteristics include policy image transformation from single-hazard response to integrated governance, policy venue expansion from unitary centralised management to multi-party collaborative governance, and the increasing salience of focal events. Future optimisation should focus on expanding the policy venue, enhancing scientific policy design, and fostering bidirectional empowerment between top-level design and grassroots momentum.
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