ArticleJournal of gastroenterology and hepatology2026
Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score.
Article in Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comment on: Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Hassan et al. Regarding the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Comment on "Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score".Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Malik et al. Regarding the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Reconsidering Outcome Structure and Transportability in the J-GESS Unified Risk Model for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Un Nisa et al. Regarding the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Dileep et al. Regarding the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Comments on the J-GESS Score: Exposure Classification, Follow-Up, and Gastric Atrophy Assessment.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Letter to the Editor: "Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score".Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Additional Comments on the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Response to Letters Regarding the J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
27 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimIn Japan, gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) account for nearly all fatal upper gastrointestinal malignancies. A unified model that simultaneously predicts the incidence of these two cancers could help optimize endoscopic screening and postindex surveillance strategies.
methodsWe conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 33 422 individuals who underwent screening esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) at 17 health check-up institutions across Japan. Clinical and endoscopic data from the index EGD were used to develop a 5-year risk prediction model for GC or ESCC. Significant predictors were identified using Cox regression, and a scoring system (J-GESS score) was constructed by scaling β coefficients. Model performance was evaluated using the 5-year inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) Brier score, calibration, and c indices. Internal validation used bootstrap resampling (500 iterations) to obtain optimism-corrected estimates. Decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed clinical utility at 5 years.
resultsAt 5 years, the IPCW-estimated cumulative incidence of GC or ESCC was 0.84% (234 events). Independent predictors included older age, male sex, ever smoking, and endoscopic gastric mucosal atrophy. The model showed good calibration at 5 years (calibration-in-the-large 0.005; slope 1.055; identical after optimism correction) and robust discrimination (Harrell's c index 0.81; Uno's 5-year c index 0.81). DCA demonstrated positive net benefit across clinically relevant thresholds.
conclusionUsing routinely collected health check-up data, we developed a unified, practical, and internally validated 5-year prediction model for GC and ESCC. The J-GESS score enables effective risk stratification and may inform postindex endoscopic surveillance and screening interval optimization in Japan.
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