ArticleScientific reports2026
A 24-year integrated assessment of fluoride in surface waters of Jinhua, China: spatiotemporal distribution, risk dynamics, and future projections.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Fluoride contamination poses a significant global environmental and public health challenge. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of fluoride levels in the surface waters of Jinhua, China, utilizing a unique 24-year monitoring dataset (2001-2024) and a multi-faceted methodological framework. This framework integrated ecological and human health risk assessments with short-term forecasting via a hybrid ARIMA-Holt-Winters model. The multi-year mean fluoride concentration was 0.641 mg/L, 1.68-fold the regional background level but below the national drinking water standard (1.0 mg/L). Pronounced spatial and seasonal variations were observed, with downstream concentrations 137-320% higher than upstream, and dry-season levels elevated by 19.8-24.1%. Ecological risk was generally low (median risk quotient = 0.30). Health risk assessment identified children as the most vulnerable group; a pivotal shift in water source function in 2016 reduced their median hazard quotient(HQ) by approximately 97.0%. Forecasts for 2025-2029 indicate a marginal concentration increase, with risks remaining manageable. This study underscores the efficacy of source-water management and provides a transferable framework for proactive fluoride mitigation in industrial-urban regions.
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