Depression, Anxiety and Criminal Behaviour Between Ages 32 and 48: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis From the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development.

backgroundDepression, anxiety and criminal behaviour are often correlated, but the direction and nature of these associations remain contested.

aimsTo investigate the temporal relationships between depression and/or anxiety and criminal behaviour at age 32 and depression and/or anxiety and criminal behaviour at age 48.

methodsUsing prospective, longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, we applied propensity score matching to estimate the associations between (a) depression and/or anxiety at age 32 and criminal convictions at age 48 and (b) criminal convictions at age 32 and mental health problems at age 48. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust for a wide range of childhood and adolescent risk factors for offending or illness.

resultsOverall, a significant association between depression and anxiety and much later offending was evident, but after allowing for childhood adversities by propensity score matching, these relationships disappeared, suggesting that they are best explained by the common antecedent of childhood adversities. There was no relationship between any offending up to age 32 and depression or anxiety measured at age 48.

conclusionsAlthough our findings were limited by the very large time gap between measures of mental health and offending, it is clear that depression and anxiety may be important in the pathway to crime, but that this association is largely accounted for by shared early-life risk factors. Our findings also, however, caution against assuming any direct relationship between these symptoms and crime, regardless of direction. Recognising early developmental vulnerabilities and intervening appropriately may be the most effective way of preventing later ill health and criminal behaviour.