ArticleScientific reports2026
Multi-decadal landscape dynamics and ecological security trajectories driven by 43-year land use changes in Kashgar, an arid border region of Northwest China.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
As a critical ecological-economic nexus along China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Kashgar region exemplifies tensions between rapid socioeconomic development and ecological fragility in arid Central Asia. Landscape degradation monitoring in arid regions is severely constrained by data scarcity; most studies rely on 15-20 year windows insufficient for detecting decadal-scale threshold behaviors. This study fills a critical research gap by integrating multi-method landscape analysis with a relatively long 43-year land use record (1980-2023). Our integrated analytical framework combines land use dynamic degree, intensity indices, transfer matrices, landscape fragmentation metrics, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, with all results validated through sensitivity analyses (parameterization robustness Spearman rs > 0.96; scale robustness rs > 0.93). We quantified unidirectional anthropogenic landscape reorganization: cultivated and construction land expanded 3,671.78 km
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