ArticleBMC pulmonary medicine2026
Validity of prolonged air leak probability score in primary spontaneous pneumothorax.
Article in BMC pulmonary medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesA probability scoring system was generated for prolonged air leak during the first primary spontaneous pneumothorax episode. Its ability to predict the development of prolonged air leak in primary spontaneous pneumothorax patients was investigated.
methodsBetween 2012 and 2021, 652 patients with primary spontaneous pneumothorax treated with chest tubes were investigated. A full logistic regression prediction model was used to estimate the probability of prolonged air leak. Using the regression coefficients and the model constant, we calculated the log odds for each patient. The probability of prolonged air leak was calculated using the following formula = 1 / (1 + e(−Log_odds)). The predictive performance of the probability scoring model was evaluated by assessing discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
resultsOut of 652 patients, 25.3% had a prolonged air leak (n=165). The logistic regression model identified three independent predictors of prolonged air leak: bullae or blebs (p=0.001), pneumothorax volume (p<0.001), and dystrophic severity score (p<0.001). The scoring model showed good predictive performance for prolonged air leak (area under the curve=0.808, p<0.001). When risk groups (low-risk [<10%), moderate-risk [10%-25%), and high-risk [>25%)) were created for convenience in clinical practice, the prolonged air leak rates were 10%, 33%, and 67% in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, respectively (P <0.001).
conclusionThe probability of a prolonged air leak during the first primary spontaneous pneumothorax episode can be predicted using a probability scoring model.
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