Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42061390›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology2026

Natural history of thyroid function in ageing: an individual participant data analysis of 137 488 participants from 31 prospective cohort studies.

Yanning Xu, Ola Hysaj, Xiaoyi Qi, Martin Feller, Alessandro Pingitore, Suzanne J Brown, Till Ittermann, Massimo Iacoviello, Stella Trompet, Ji Won Han and 46 more

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Article in The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

56 authors.

Yanning XuDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Ola HysajInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Xiaoyi QiDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Martin FellerInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Alessandro PingitoreNational Council Research (CNR) Institute of Clinical Physiology, Pisa, Italy.
Suzanne J BrownDepartment of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, WA, Australia.
Till IttermannGerman Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; Institute for Community Medicine, Clinical Epidemiological Research, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Massimo IacovielloCardiology Unit, Cardiothoracic Department, University Polyclinic Hospital of Bari, Bari, Italy.
Stella TrompetDepartment of Internal Medicine, Section of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands; LUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands.
Ji Won HanDepartment of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
Börge SchmidtInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany.
José A SgarbiDivision of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Faculdade de Medicina de Marília, Marília, Brazil.
Sergio ValdésDepartment of Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Regional Universitario de Málaga, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, Spain; Instituto de Investigación Biomedica de Málaga (IBIMA), Málaga, Spain.
Axel MuendleinVorarlberg Institute for Vascular Investigation and Treatment (VIVIT), Feldkirch, Austria.
Johannes RiisDepartment of Geriatric Medicine, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark.
Stig AndersenDepartment of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.
Heinz DrexelVorarlberg Institute for Vascular Investigation and Treatment (VIVIT), Feldkirch, Austria; Private University of the Principality of Liechtenstein, Triesen, Liechtenstein; Drexel University College of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Alexander TeumerGerman Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Marcus DörrGerman Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany; Institute for Community Medicine, Clinical Epidemiological Research, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Mark P J VanderpumpOneWelbeck Endocrinology, London, UK.
Nick WarehamMedical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Bert VaesDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
W Edward VisserDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
J Wouter JukemaDepartment of Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands; Netherlands Heart Institute, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Misa ImaizumiDepartment of Clinical Studies, Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Nagasaki, Japan.
Robin P F DullaartDepartment of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Marco MediciDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Howard A FinkGeriatric Research Education and Clinical Center, VA Healthcare System, Minneapolis, MN, USA; Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Graziano CeresiniDepartment of Medicine and Surgery, Unit of Internal Medicine and Onco-Endocrinology, University Hospital of Parma, Parma, Italy.
Luigi FerrucciLongitudinal Studies Section, Translational Gerontology Branch, National Institute on Aging, Baltimore, MD, USA.
M Arfan IkramDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Graeme J HankeyCentre for Neuromuscular and Neurological Disorders, Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; Perron Institute for Neurological and Translational Science, Perth, WA, Australia.
Giorgio IervasiNational Council Research (CNR), Department of Biomedical Science, Rome, Italy.
Richard EastellDivision of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
Douglas C BauerDepartment of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Graham R WilliamsMolecular Endocrinology Laboratory, Department of Metabolism, Digestion, and Reproduction, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Kristien BoelaertDepartment of Applied Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Bruce M PsatyDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Cardiovascular Health Research Unit, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Dagmar Führer-SakelDepartment of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, University Hospital Essen, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Stephan J L BakkerDepartment of Internal Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Lambertus A L M KiemeneyScience Department IQ Health, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Niels P RiksenDepartment of Internal Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Ki Woong KimDepartment of Neuropsychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
Fereidoun AziziEndocrine Research Center and Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Henry VölzkeInstitute for Community Medicine, Clinical Epidemiological Research, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Bu B YeapUniversity of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Perth, WA, Australia.
Salman RazviTranslational and Clinical Research Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
Jacobijn GusseklooLUMC Center for Medicine for Older People, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands; Department of Public Health and Primary Care, and Department of Internal Medicine, Section Gerontology and Geriatrics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands.
John P WalshDepartment of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, WA, Australia; Medical School, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA, Australia.
Isabela M BensenorDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
Jennifer MammenDepartment of Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Nicolas RodondiInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Department of General Internal Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Anne R CappolaDepartment of Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Robin P PeetersDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Layal ChakerDepartment of Internal Medicine, Academic Center for Thyroid Diseases, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: l.chaker@erasmusmc.nl.
Thyroid Studies Collaboration

Funding

Oregon Clinical and Translational Research Institute - The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)UL1TR002369 · NCATS · OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY · PI Cynthia D Morris, Christopher G. Slatore · 2017 to 2026
$78.4M
Long term fracture risk and change in peripheral bone in the oldest old men: The MrOS studyR01AG066671 · NIA · CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MED CTR RES INSTITUTE · PI BOUXSEIN, MARY L, CAWTHON, PEGGY MANNEN · 2020 to 2024
$13.3M
Exceptional Survival: Trajectories to Functional Aging (CHS All Stars)R01AG023629 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI NEWMAN, ANNE B. · 2004 to 2016
$9.5M
CHARGE Consortium: Omics Discovery for CVD and Aging PhenotypesR01HL105756 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Bruce M Psaty, NICHOLAS L SMITH · 2011 to 2026
$9.5M
Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) - San Francisco Coordinating CenterU01AR066160 · NIAMS · CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MED CTR RES INSTITUTE · PI CUMMINGS, STEVEN RON · 2013 to 2017
$9.3M
CHS research resources for the cardiovascular health of older adultsU01HL130114 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI BURKE, GREGORY L, KRONMAL, RICHARD A · 2016 to 2019
$6.6M
Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) - MinneapolisU01AG042145 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI ENSRUD, KRISTINE · 2013 to 2019
$5.3M
Osteporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS)- Admin CenterU01AG027810 · NIA · OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY · PI ORWOLL, ERIC S. · 2006 to 2017
$5.1M
CHS Events Follow-up StudyU01HL080295 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI PSATY, BRUCE M · 2005 to 2008
$4.6M
Peripheral Nerve Function Decline in an Aged CohortR01AG028050 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI STROTMEYER, ELSA S. · 2007 to 2015
$3.5M
Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) - PortlandU01AG042124 · NIA · OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY · PI ORWOLL, ERIC S. · 2013 to 2019
$3.0M
Osteoporatic Fractures in Men (MrOS)U01AG042168 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI KADO, DEBORAH · 2013 to 2017
$3.0M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002369NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL105756NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL172803NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL080295NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL130114NIAMS NIH HHS U01 AR066160NIA NIH HHS K24 AG042765NIA NIH HHS R01 AG023629NIA NIH HHS R01 AG028050NIA NIH HHS R01 AG066671NIA NIH HHS U01 AG027810NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042124NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042139NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042140NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042143NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042145NIA NIH HHS U01 AG042168NINR NIH HHS R01 NR012459
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEvidence regarding thyroid function changes with ageing remains inconsistent and the implications of potential changes are unclear. We aimed to investigate ageing-related thyroid function changes and their associations with mortality.

methodsIn this individual participant data (IPD) analysis, prospective population-based cohorts were eligible for inclusion when data on thyroid function measurements and mortality were available in individuals aged 18 years and older. Eligible datasets were identified through a systematic search of PubMed. We excluded cohorts of participants with only thyroid disease or thyroid-altering medications, or pregnant individuals. We requested data from all eligible cohorts that agreed to participate in the study. Linear mixed models were used to investigate associations between age and thyroid function, stratified for sex and regional iodine status. Annual changes in thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT

findingsIn this IPD analysis, we analysed data collected between Jan 1, 2011, and Oct 13, 2022, from 31 cohorts across Europe (n=19), the USA (n=5), Asia (n=3), Brazil (n=2), and Australia (n=2; 137 488 participants; 68 322 [49·7%] were female and 69 166 [50·3%] were male; median age 60 years [range 18-106]). Cross-sectionally, older age was associated with higher TSH in iodine-sufficient regions and with lower TSH in iodine-insufficient regions. Longitudinal analyses showed that TSH increased with increasing age regardless of iodine status. The overall increase in TSH from age 18 years to 100 years was 0·61 mIU/L (0·52 SD) for female participants and 0·99 mIU/L (0·76) for male participants from iodine-sufficient regions. Greater variability in population distribution and longitudinal TSH changes was observed in adults aged 65 years or older. Higher FT

interpretationAgeing-related changes in thyroid function varied by sex and iodine status. Most individuals had stable thyroid function during ageing with a slight increase in TSH, although older adults displayed greater variability. Patterns of changing thyroid function were associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk, warranting further exploration of the underlying mechanisms and clinical management.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

AgingThyroid DiseasesThyroid GlandAdultAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesThyroid Function TestsThyrotropinThyroxineThyrotropinThyroxine

Identifiers

PMID42061390
PMCPMC13590157

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