ArticleScientific reports2026
Impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Cyatheaceae in China: a MaxEnt model-based prediction.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Cyatheaceae is one of Earth's oldest tree fern families and is currently facing degradation of natural habitats due to ecological environment deterioration. Therefore, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict changes in the potential habitats of Cyatheaceae species in China across past, present, and future periods (2030s-2090s) under three climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, SSPs585). The model showed high accuracy (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.87, CBI > 0.98), indicating that the predictions were reliable. The species' distribution was most affected by six environmental factors: bio2 (optimal ~ 5 °C), bio12 (optimal 2,500-3,800 mm), bio4 (optimal < 480), bio11 (optimal 12-20 °C), the human footprint index (hfp, optimal ~ 35), and bio17 (optimal 200-730 mm). From MH to the present, suitable habitats have decreased significantly, from 183.01 × 10
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