ArticleEndocrine journal2026
A predictive nomogram for progression-free survival in radioiodine-refractory papillary thyroid carcinoma after reoperation: a longitudinal study in Vietnam.
Article in Endocrine journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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15 authors.
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Abstract
Radioiodine-refractory (RAI-R) papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with disease progression is associated with poor prognosis. This study aimed to develop a predictive nomogram for progression-free survival (PFS) in RAI-R PTC by integrating clinical, pathological, and mutational features. In this longitudinal study, 145 patients with RAI-R PTC who underwent reoperation for locoregional recurrence were followed for disease progression. A Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was employed to identify the optimal model for predicting PFS. Model performance was assessed using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier scores, and calibration plots. A nomogram for PFS prediction was then developed based on parameters from the optimal model. During a median follow-up of 29.7 months, 38 patients (26.2%) experienced disease progression after reoperation. Among eight candidate variables, BMA identified an optimal model that included four key predictors: treatment response, extrathyroidal/extranodal extension, mitotic count, and coexisting BRAF
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