ArticleBMJ open2026
Evolution and forecasting of antiretroviral therapy utilisation in British Columbia: a population-level analysis of provincial drug treatment programme data, 2014-2024.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo characterise temporal trends in antiretroviral therapy (ART) utilisation and forecast short-term changes in regimen distribution within a provincial HIV treatment programme.
designPopulation-level longitudinal analysis of administrative drug dispensation data combined with time-series forecasting using recurrent neural network (RNN) models.
settingThe British Columbia (BC) Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Program (DTP), which centrally coordinates and records all publicly funded ART dispensations in BC, Canada.
participantsAll ART dispensations recorded in the DTP between fiscal years 2014/2015 and 2023/2024. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Temporal changes in ART dispensation volume and regimen market share. Forecasts of regimen utilisation were generated using drug-specific RNN models, and predictive performance was evaluated using different measures, including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error. Forecast uncertainty was presented using 95% prediction intervals.
resultsART utilisation patterns changed substantially over the study period. Dispensation of second-generation integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimens, particularly dolutegravir- and bictegravir-containing combinations, increased steadily, while utilisation of several older regimens, including generic formulations, declined in relative market share. RNN models demonstrated strong predictive performance during temporal validation, with validation MAPE ranging from 0.27% to 2.26% across regimens. For example, the model forecasting bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide utilisation showed a validation MAPE of 0.27%, indicating very small prediction error during temporal validation. Forecasts suggest that second-generation INSTI-based regimens will continue to account for the majority of ART dispensation volume within the provincial programme in the near term.
conclusionsOver the past decade, ART utilisation in BC has shifted from older and generic regimens towards newer second-generation INSTI-based combinations. These changes illustrate evolving treatment patterns within a publicly funded HIV programme and may have implications for long-term programme planning as newer therapies replace existing treatment options. In addition, this study demonstrated the potential application of machine learning-based forecasting approaches for analysing pharmaceutical utilisation patterns using administrative health data. Such approaches may complement traditional pharmacoepidemiological methods and provide additional tools for monitoring treatment trends and informing health system planning.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.