Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42050450›Full record

ArticleBMC gastroenterology2026

Research on risk assessment and predictive model for gastrointestinal fistula after gastrectomy based on F-index scoring system.

Jingli Cui, Kai Zhao, Fei Wang, Wei Zhang, Zelong Zheng, Qingfan Zheng, Xiao Zheng

Abstract readMulticenter StudyValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

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7 authors.

Jingli CuiDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Affiliated Taian City Central Hospital of Qingdao University, Taian, Shandong Province, China.
Kai ZhaoDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin Province, China.
Fei WangDepartment of Endocrinology, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong Province, China.
Wei ZhangDepartment of Periodontology and Mucosal Diseases, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, Shandong Province, China.
Zelong ZhengDepartment of Endoscopy Center, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin Province, China.
Qingfan ZhengDepartment of Endoscopy Center, China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin Province, China. zhengqingfan@jlu.edu.cn.
Xiao ZhengDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Affiliated Taian City Central Hospital of Qingdao University, Taian, Shandong Province, China. mailfs44@163.com.

Funding

Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Project of Shandong Province No. 202304081355
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGastrointestinal fistula is a serious complication after gastrectomy, leading to high morbidity and mortality. Early identification of high-risk patients is crucial for improving outcomes and reducing complications. However, a simple and effective scoring system for assessing postoperative fistula risk is still lacking.

methodsThis multicenter retrospective study aimed to develop and validate a scoring system (F-index) for predicting gastrointestinal fistula risk after gastrectomy. A total of 83 patients diagnosed with postoperative gastrointestinal fistula after gastrectomy between Aug 2021 and Dec 2023 were included. Patients were divided into low-risk (0–3 points, 30 patients) and high-risk (4–7 points, 53 patients) groups. 58 patients from the Third Hospital of Jilin University were used as the training set, while 25 patients from Weifang People’s Hospital formed the validation set. Data collection included demographic information, surgical data, and postoperative outcomes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors, and ROC curve analysis was performed to evaluate the F-index’s predictive performance. Sensitivity, subgroup analyses, and nomogram construction were also conducted to validate the model.

resultsThe F-index showed good discriminatory ability for post-diagnosis risk stratification among patients with postoperative gastrointestinal fistula after gastrectomy. Multivariate analysis indicated that time to fistula recognition after surgery > 7 days (OR = 6.307, 95% CI: 1.343–29.619, p = 0.020) and fistula diameter > 1 cm (OR = 0.109, 95% CI: 0.023–0.520, p = 0.005) were independently associated with high-risk classification. ROC curve analysis demonstrated an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.528–0.972) for the training set and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.267–1.000) for the validation set. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed consistent performance across different age and BMI thresholds, and the calibration plot indicated good agreement between predicted and observed risks.

conclusionThe F-index scoring system is a simple and effective tool for post-diagnosis risk stratification in patients with postoperative gastrointestinal fistula after gastrectomy, helping identify high-risk cases and optimize postoperative management.

trial registrationISRCTN47338250. Registration Date: 24/10/2024.

Indexed as

Digestive System FistulaGastrectomyGastric FistulaIntestinal FistulaPostoperative ComplicationsAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNomogramsPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveF-indexGastrointestinal fistulaPostoperative complicationsPredictive modelRisk assessment

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PMID42050450
PMCPMC13261965

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