Projected Methane Emissions From a Boreal Thermokarst Bog Are Sensitive to Carbon Substrate Availability, Distribution, and Transport Pathway Dominance.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, which traps significantly more heat than carbon dioxide over short timescales, but remains underrepresented in models used for projecting future climate scenarios, particularly in permafrost landscapes. Understanding methane dynamics in northern wetlands is critical for improving projections of high-latitude carbon feedbacks to the global climate system. To address this, we integrated ecological processes driving methane production, oxidation, and transport pathways into the DVM-DOS-TEM terrestrial biosphere model. Using long-term site observations from a thermokarst bog in boreal Alaska, we calibrated and benchmarked the model against observations of methane and carbon dioxide fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and soil temperature and moisture. Parameter sensitivity analyses identified opposing correlations for methanogenesis and heterotrophic respiration, revealing a dependence on carbon availability. We also found sensitivity to the distribution of carbon relative to the water table position. Investigation of the dominance of different methane transport pathways demonstrated the need for observations of methane flux partitioning, and the utility in comparing simulated to observed seasonality. The cumulative methane efflux projected to the year 2100 had a range of 211-3470 g C m