ArticlePLoS pathogens2026
Seasonal forcing and waning immunity drive the sub-annual periodicity of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Article in PLoS pathogens, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Seasonal and Age-Stratified Patterns of Influenza, COVID-19, and RSV in Poland (2024-2026).Viruses · 2026Article
- Leveraging perturbations to infer the population dynamics of human rhinovirus and interaction of influenza A virus.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Noisy periodicity in tropical respiratory disease dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Leveraging perturbations to infer the population dynamics of human rhinovirus and interaction of influenza A virus.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025.JAMA network open · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Seasonal trends in infectious diseases are shaped by climatic and social factors, with many respiratory viruses peaking in winter. However, the seasonality of COVID-19 remains in dispute, with significant waves of cases across the United States occurring in both winter and summer. Using wavelet analysis of COVID-19 cases during the pandemic period, we find that the periodicity of epidemic COVID-19 varies markedly across the U.S. and correlates with winter temperatures, indicating seasonal forcing. However, seasonal forcing alone cannot explain the pattern of multiple waves per year that has been so characteristic of COVID-19. Using a modified SIRS model that allows specification of the tempo of waning immunity, we show that specific forms of non-durable immunity can sufficiently explain the sub-annual waves characteristic of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.