ArticlePLoS computational biology2026
How competition can drive allochronic divergence: A case study in the Marine Midge, Clunio marinus.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Synchronizing mating to extrinsic environmental cycles can increase the chance of successful reproduction, and the resulting temporally-assorted mating may precipitate speciation if coupled with divergent selection. This process might be particularly relevant to the marine midge Clunio marinus, which synchronizes its reproduction to different lunar phases. In Roscoff (France) two sympatric populations differ in reproductive timing but are still connected by gene flow. A previous study found a relationship between the timing of reproduction and the depth at which larva live in the intertidal zone. Building on this observation, we ask if the link between reproductive timing and depth could be a mechanism for divergence when coupled with competition-induced density-dependent fitness. We devise an individual-based model replicating the reproductive behavior of C. marinus and find that sympatric divergence can occur, even when we model sexual reproduction with recombination and an explicit genetic basis. Our results suggest this mechanism is a likely hypothesis for the allochronic divergence observed in the Roscoff populations. Additionally, our study provides insights into how density-dependent fitness and competition may play a role in allochronic divergence in general.
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