ArticleVaccines2026
Potential Public Health and Economic Impact of the Next-Generation COVID-19 Vaccine mRNA-1283 in The Netherlands.
Article in Vaccines, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundCOVID-19 remains a substantial public health challenge in the Netherlands. Next-generation COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1283, is approved in the European Union, with potential for higher relative vaccine efficacy compared with originally licensed COVID-19 vaccines.
methodsThe potential public health and economic impact of mRNA-1283 in adults ≥ 60 years and high-risk adults aged 18-59 years was modeled versus no vaccination and originally licensed mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, adapting a published static Markov model with a 1-year time horizon. COVID-19 burden reflected two full post-pandemic seasons. Vaccine efficacy versus mRNA-1273 was based on pivotal phase 3 NextCOVE trial data; efficacy versus BNT162b2 was derived from an indirect treatment comparison. The economically justifiable price (EJP) of mRNA-1283 versus no vaccination and price premiums over existing vaccines were determined at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.
resultsWithout COVID-19 vaccination, an estimated 460,000 infections, 23,800 hospitalizations, and 5300 deaths would occur. With current coverage, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent 68,000 infections, 5400 hospitalizations, and 1200 deaths, saving 9667 QALYs and over €66.5 million in treatment costs. The EJP was €238 versus no vaccination. Compared with mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, mRNA-1283 was estimated to prevent additional burden (e.g., 1309 and 1679 hospitalizations, respectively) and was cost-effective at an incremental EJP of €62 versus mRNA-1273 and €80 versus BNT162b2.
conclusionsThe results support continued COVID-19 vaccination to mitigate the ongoing health and societal burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the Netherlands. The comparative analyses indicate that mRNA-1283 may be associated with substantial health benefits over originally licensed mRNA vaccines; consequently, its use may further improve health outcomes and economic efficiency within COVID-19 vaccination programs.
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