ArticleEmpirical research in vocational education and training2026
Job mismatches and their implications for the career development of vocational graduates.
Article in Empirical research in vocational education and training, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The transition from vocational education into the labour market is a key indicator of how effectively VET systems prepare graduates for employment. A central concern for school-based and work-based programmes alike is whether education-job mismatches undermine vocational adjustment and early career development. This study examines how mismatch at labour-market entry is associated with graduates' subsequent five-year employment trajectories in the Netherlands. We combine the 2016 Dutch School Leaver Survey with monthly register data from 2015-2020 for 10,364 school leavers. Using a Mixture Hidden Markov Model (MHMM), we identify five early-career trajectories that capture variation in employment stability, contract quality and progression. The results show that education-job mismatches at the beginning of the career are associated with a higher probability of following the Volatility & Entrapment trajectory, which is characterised by temporary contracts, limited progression and high turnover. Dual mismatches (vertical and horizontal combined) are linked to a notably lower likelihood of upward mobility, suggesting persistent vocational disadvantages that extend beyond the point of entry. Importantly, the findings reveal differences in vocational resilience across programme types: The negative associations of mismatch are more pronounced for school-based graduates. While work-based graduates show greater resilience to single mismatches, any type of mismatch is associated with a lower probability of following a successful early career for school-based graduates. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40461-026-00207-w.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.