Long term mangrove dieback and recovery at Godorya Marine Protected Area in the Gulf of Aden under climate variability.

Mangrove ecosystems along arid and semi-arid coastlines are susceptible to climate variability and hydrodynamic change. Here, we present the first comprehensive multi-decadal assessment of mangrove canopy dynamics in the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden over the period 1987–2022. Canopy condition was assessed using NDVI as a proxy, while mangrove cover was derived from supervised classification of satellite imagery. NDVI reached a minimum of 0.21 during the 2009 drought and increasing to 0.45 by 2022 during wet years. A multi-decadal mangrove cover record revealed a 30.5% loss in mangrove cover between 1987 and 2012 followed by partial recovery (+ 25.3%) between 2015 and 2022. Correlation analyses show significant relations between sea level anomaly and mangrove cover (r = 0.62, p < 0.001), and between rainfall and NDVI (r = 0.48, p < 0.01). Using detrended anomaly-based multiple regression, we show that mangrove dynamics are primarily controlled by sea level anomaly, rainfall, and temperature. Sea level anomaly emerges as the dominant driver of mangrove extent, while vegetation greenness reflects combined hydroclimatic influences, highlighting distinct controls on structural and physiological ecosystem responses. Our findings underscore the importance of hydrological processes in shaping mangrove resilience in the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden.