ArticleDemography2026
Accounting for Race Response Change in Population Projections: A Research Note.
Article in Demography, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
Demographers have struggled to make realistic population projections for some race groups. For example, the Census Bureau's 2023 national projection gives the unrealistically low estimate that the American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population will be 8.7 million in 2050 (it was measured at 9.7 million in 2020). I argue that this disconnect occurs because the cohort component model ignores an important component of change: race response change (whether due to complex identities or administrative processes). This research note introduces a strategy for incorporating net race response change into cohort component model projections. I apply the strategy to the racially identified AIAN population in the United States from 2020 to 2050, concluding that it may grow from 9.7 million in 2020 to 19.8 million in 2050.
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