Climate drivers of historic tree growth in the Vienna Woods and prediction of future performance of eight selected tree species.

This study investigates the climate sensitivity and resilience of radial growth in eight coniferous and deciduous tree species in the Vienna Woods, Austria. Using dendrochronological methods, we analyzed tree-ring width data from 63 forest plots to assess growth responses to meteorological variability over the period 1933-2023. Historic climate records were used to develop a water balance model, from which we derived seasonal growth factors. Linear mixed effects models were applied to quantify species-specific relationships between tree-ring width and climatic conditions during the current and preceding two years. Tree-ring width responded not only to climatic conditions of the current growing season but also strongly to those of the previous year. Soil moisture and air temperature emerged as the principal drivers of radial growth, with soil moisture positively and temperature negatively affecting ring width. Climatic conditions during June-July of the current year exerted the strongest impact on ring formation. Using regional climate trends and projected air temperature and precipitation trajectories for Central Europe under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, we forecast future growing conditions for the region. Both scenarios predict an extended growing season, increased transpiration demand, and heightened drought risk - more pronounced under RCP8.5. However, projected increases in precipitation partly offset the drought risk. By combining historical climate sensitivity of radial increment with future climate projections, we modelled expected tree-ring growth for eight tree species. Most species are predicted to experience notable declines in radial growth, with the strongest reductions in conifers, including European larch