ArticleBMC global and public health2026
Sex-specific biological susceptibility and sexual mixing patterns in herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission: a mathematical modeling study.
Article in BMC global and public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mathematical modeling of the population-level impact of hypothetical herpes simplex virus type 2 curative therapy.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Sex-specific biological susceptibility and sexual mixing patterns in herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission: a mathematical modeling study.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Screening in Persons with and Without HIV: Evidence, Challenges, and Future Directions.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2026Review
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3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundHerpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a lifelong sexually transmitted infection with substantial disease and economic burdens. Despite its global impact, key features of its transmission dynamics-including sex-specific biological susceptibility (the inherent likelihood of acquiring infection upon exposure, independent of behavioral factors) and sexual mixing patterns (how individuals form sexual partnerships across age and risk groups)-remain poorly quantified.
methodsA population-level mathematical model of HSV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to heterosexual transmission in the USA and calibrated to nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) conducted between 1988 and 2016. Bayesian inference was used to estimate: (1) relative biological susceptibility of women compared to men, (2) degree of assortativity in age group mixing, and (3) degree of assortativity in sexual risk behavior group mixing. Assortativity reflects the tendency of individuals to form partnerships with others who share similar characteristics, such as age or level of sexual risk behavior, and was quantified on a scale from 0 (no preferential mixing) to 1 (exclusive within-group mixing).
resultsThe model demonstrated robust fits to sex-specific, age-specific, and temporal trends in HSV-2 prevalence across NHANES rounds, supporting the validity of the inferred transmission dynamics. Women were estimated to be 7.12 times (95% credible interval (Crl) 4.36-10.17) more biologically susceptible to HSV-2 infection than men, indicating a substantially higher likelihood of acquiring infection upon exposure. The degree of assortativity in age group mixing was high at 0.83 (95% Crl 0.75-0.88), indicating that most transmission occurs between individuals of similar age. In contrast, assortativity in sexual risk behavior group mixing was moderate at 0.49 (95% Crl 0.43-0.55), indicating that transmission frequently occurs across different risk groups rather than being confined within the same group.
conclusionsWomen are much more biologically susceptible to HSV-2 infection than men. HSV-2 transmission mostly occurs within similar age groups but often crosses different sexual risk groups, reflecting strong age-assortative and moderate risk-assortative mixing patterns.
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