ArticleDie Naturwissenschaften2026
Local biophysical drivers outweigh climatic controls in shaping juniper regeneration in the Eastern Hindu Kush: implications for conservation.
Article in Die Naturwissenschaften, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Junipers are a vital component of the montane ecosystems in the Hindu Kush, and their regeneration and healthy recruitment are critical for the long-term sustainability of these woodlands. However, the current regeneration status and the environmental and socio-ecological drivers shaping it remain insufficiently investigated. We assessed the natural regeneration of junipers from 30 stands (300 plots) and examined the environmental factors, disturbance gradients, and stand structural attributes that influence their patterns. Cluster analysis identified three distinct community types (hereafter C-I to C-III); each represents various regeneration dynamics and disturbance levels. Overall, regeneration was poor (seedling density < 46 ± 4.54 individuals ha− 1) and significantly declined with disturbance intensity (R²= 0.39; p < 0.001). Importantly, regeneration varied among the communities, with significantly higher seedlings and saplings recorded in C-I (least disturbed) compared to C-II and C-III (moderately and highly disturbed, respectively) (p < 0.001). Redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that regeneration was positively associated with soil clay, phosphorus, potassium, water availability, saturation, and field capacity, with a moderate impact from structural attributes. However, elevation, sand, and bulk density were negative drivers. Structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed that topography exerted a strong negative (PC= -0.87), while soil factors had a strong positive effects (PC = 0.49) on regeneration, with climate showing a minimal effect. Our findings suggest that these woodlands exhibit considerably low regeneration, highlighting the urgent need for management interventions. Efforts should focus on improving soil conditions and addressing topography-related limitations, while controlling human-induced disturbances such as deforestation to maintain healthy woodland dynamics.
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