ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Excess mortality of German men and women aged 60 years and older needing long-term care 2020-2024: data from a statutory health insurance comprising more than 3 million people.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: Demographic aging is increasing the demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany. However, existing projections often rely on prevalence-based models that fail to account for age- and sex-specific trends in incidence and mortality. While dynamic approaches, such as the illness-death model, have improved projections, reliable empirical estimates of mortality rate ratios ( Methods: This study analyzed anonymized, aggregated claims data from BARMER, a German statutory health insurance. The data covered individuals aged 60 years and older from 2020 to 2024. Mortality rates and Results: From 2020 to 2024, individuals with LTC need demonstrated persistently higher mortality rates compared to those without LTC need among all age groups and both sexes. The most pronounced increase in mortality disparities was observed in the 90+ age group, where the Conclusion: Our analysis reveals a persistent and expanding disparity in mortality among individuals with LTC need across all age groups. The findings indicate that the
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