ArticleBMC public health2026
Sex- and age-specific transmission pathways of mumps: a mechanistic SEPIAR modeling study in Chengdu, China (2008-2019).
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionDespite widespread mumps vaccination, recurrent outbreaks persist globally, underscoring the need to clarify sex- and age-specific transmission mechanisms.
objectivesThis study characterizes mumps epidemiology in Chengdu (2008-2019) and quantifies sex- and age-specific transmission pathways using a mechanistic modeling framework.
methodsA sex- and age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) model incorporating seasonal forcing was developed to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers (R
resultsA total of 40,087 cases were reported (annual incidence: 21.72 per 100,000), with the highest burden among male students aged 5-14 and seasonal peaks in May-July and November-December. The model achieved good fit across demographic groups (R² = 0.13-0.73, P < 0.001). Females aged 10-14 exhibited the strongest transmission potential, particularly toward males aged 0-14 (median R
conclusionsSex and age may play an important role in shaping mumps transmission dynamics in Chengdu. The SEPIAR model may offer a useful framework for characterizing transmission pathways and identifying groups that could contribute disproportionately to spread. Interventions such as targeted vaccination during seasonal peaks, considering booster doses for females aged 10-14, enhancing surveillance in high‑incidence districts, and improving reporting capacity in rural areas could help reduce transmission and may support more effective and sustained mumps control in large urban settings.
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