Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Population Dynamics of the Biological Vector Aedes Aegypti.

Background: The invasive mosquito Objective: As a first step toward a transmission model for vector-borne diseases, a weather-dependent population dynamic simulation for Methods: We developed an agent-based model, incorporating temperature- and precipitation-dependent development, mortality, movement, feeding behavior, and egg-laying. Species-specific parameters were derived from published experimental studies. Simulations were run for observed weather data from 2024 and for EURO-CORDEX climate projections (ÖKS15) for 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Daily immigration of one adult female was assumed to mimic human-mediated introduction along major transport routes. Results: Under all scenarios, population development began in late May and ceased by late September. Observed 2024 conditions produced the highest population sizes (area under the curve [AUC] = 361,343 individuals), whereas all future projections resulted in substantially lower abundances, despite higher mean temperatures. Conclusion: This discrepancy was driven by stronger fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, as well as the absence of urban heat-island effects in climate projections. Under no scenario did mosquitoes survive winter, indicating that long-term establishment is highly unlikely. The model provides a foundation for future extension toward spatially explicit virus transmission simulations, and for assessing the public health implications of climate change in alpine regions.