Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42013444›Full record

Observational studyAIDS (London, England)2026

Temporal trends in viral setpoint and peak CD4 + cell count soon after HIV-1 seroconversion.

Nikos Pantazis, Caroline Sabin, Dominique Costagliola, Sophie Grabar, Christina Carlander, John Gill, Ard van Sighem, Inma Jarrin, Laurence Meyer, Elisa Ruiz-Burga and 5 more

Abstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in AIDS (London, England), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Nikos PantazisMedical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Caroline SabinInstitute for Global Health, University College London, UK.
Dominique CostagliolaSorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, Paris, France.
Sophie GrabarSorbonne Université, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, Paris, France.
Christina CarlanderDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
John GillSouthern Alberta HIV Clinic, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Ard van SighemStichting hiv monitoring, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Inma JarrinNational Centre of Epidemiology, Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain.
Laurence MeyerINSERM CESP U1018, APHP Hôpital de Bicêtre, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, Paris-Saclay University, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Elisa Ruiz-BurgaInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, UK.
Shema TariqInstitute for Global Health, University College London, UK.
Bruno SpireInserm, IRD, SESSTIM, ISSPAM, Aix-Marseille Université, Marseille, France.
Fiona BurnsInstitute for Global Health, University College London, UK.
Giota TouloumiMedical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
for CASCADE Collaboration

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo examine whether HIV-1 virulence, as measured by prognostic markers soon after seroconversion, has changed over time and across subgroups in the context of widespread ART availability.

designObservational cohort study of individuals with well estimated HIV-1 seroconversion dates recruited from clinics in eight European countries and Canada (CASCADE Collaboration).

methodsWe analyzed data from 21 933 participants who seroconverted 1980-2014, while ART-naïve and AIDS-free. Piecewise linear mixed models with one knot at 1 year after seroconversion for log 10 HIV-1 RNA (setpoint viral load, SPVL) and 4 months for square-root CD4 + cell count (peak CD4) were fitted. Models adjusted for age, sex/probable exposure route, region of origin, diagnosis during acute infection, and assay type.

resultsSPVL increased and peak CD4 declined over time until approximately 2000, then stabilized, with a mild reversal after 2005. Estimated (95% CI) average SPVL for those seroconverting on 1/1/1980, 1/1/1995, 1/1/2005, and 31/12/2014 was 3.2 (3.0-3.4), 4.0 (3.9-4.1), 4.3 (4.2-4.4), and 4.2 (4.1-4.3) log10 copies/ml, respectively. Corresponding estimates for peak CD4 were 960 (898-1025), 615 (584-648), 521 (492-551), and 560 (526-594) cells/μl. The increase in SPVL up to 2005 was less pronounced in European/North American MSM (1.0 log 10  copies/ml) than in men and women with heterosexual exposure from the same region or from Africa (1.5 and 1.4 log 10  copies/ml, respectively).

conclusionsSPVL and peak CD4 stabilized by 2000-2005, consistent with HIV-1 adaptation to the population. The subsequent trend reversal, most evident among MSM, warrants ongoing monitoring.

Indexed as

HIV-1HIV InfectionsHIV SeropositivitySeroconversionViral LoadAdultCanadaCD4 Lymphocyte CountCohort StudiesEuropeFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedTime FactorsYoung AdultCD4HIV-1 RNAseroconversionsetpoint viral loadvirulence

Identifiers

PMID42013444
PMCPMC13566474

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.