ArticleJournal of prevention (2022)2026
School Dropout and Adolescent Homicides in São Paulo: A Case-Control Study on Programmatic Vulnerability.
Article in Journal of prevention (2022), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Adolescent homicide is a major public health challenge in Brazil. This study investigates the association between school dropout and homicide death in São Paulo, exploring justice-system involvement as a potential mediator. A population-based case-control study was conducted. Cases (N = 939) were adolescents (10-19 years) killed by homicide (2015-2020), identified via police records and linked to school databases. Controls (N = 939) were randomly selected after stratification of the cases by sex. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression to estimate Odds Ratios (OR). Mediation analysis estimated natural direct (NDE) and indirect effects (NIE) through court proceedings. Most victims were male (94.7%) and out of school at the time of death (68.8% males; 50.0% females). In adjusted models, school dropout was strongly associated with homicide for both males (ORadj = 5.54; 95% CI 4.33-7.09) and females (ORadj = 5.23; 95% CI 1.60-17.07). For males, a history of court proceedings showed a high association with homicide (ORc = 16.74; 95% CI 12.75-21.98). Mediation analysis indicated that court proceedings accounted for 24% of the total association (NIE OR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.34-1.64). The proportion mediated was higher for males (25%) than for females (14%). School dropout is a significant marker of vulnerability associated with adolescent homicide. Although justice-system involvement explains part of this association, particularly for males, the direct association remains predominant across sexes. These results indicate that school disengagement and conflict with the law are interlinked exploratory pathways in the trajectories of lethal victimization among adolescents. Keywords: Homicide, Adolescent, Vulnerability, Secondary Data Analysis, Data Linkage, Violence .
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