Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42009713›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Contribution of North Atlantic temperature variability to El Niño cyclicity as revealed by spectral causality estimates.

Igor I Mokhov, Dmitry A Smirnov

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Igor I MokhovObukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Pyzhevsky Per., Moscow, Russia, 603950.
Dmitry A SmirnovObukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Pyzhevsky Per., Moscow, Russia, 603950. smirnovda@yandex.ru.

Funding

Russian Science Foundation 24-17-00211
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Spectral effects of directional (causal) couplings between El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and intradecadal North Atlantic temperature variability (NATV) are estimated from monthly time series of their indices over the period of 1870 - 2022 on the basis of empirical autoregressive models. For any of the three ENSO indices (Niño-3, Niño-3,4 and Niño-4), a bidirectional coupling between the ENSO and the NATV (i.e. both the influence of the ENSO on the NATV and that in the opposite direction) is detected. According to the models, removal of the coupling in any of the two directions leads to disappearance of the spectral peak on the periods of 3-5 years for the NATV and at least to a strong blurring of that peak for the ENSO. The spectral causal effect (i.e. power spectrum changes under the respective coupling removal) of the NATV on the eastern equatorial Pacific region Niño-3 is found to be the strongest one among the three ENSO regions, while that effect on the most western region Niño-4 is the smallest one.

Indexed as

Climate indicesDirectional couplingsEl Niño/Southern OscillationIntradecadal North Atlantic temperature variabilitySpectral causal effectsTime series analysis

Identifiers

PMID42009713
PMCPMC13261045

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.