Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42004043›Full record

ArticleO&G open2026

Temporal Trends in Pregnancy Rate, Live Birth Rates, and Rates of Gestational Outcomes, 2012-2023.

Shalmali Bane, Fei Xu, Susanna Mitro, Heather Forquer, Jennifer M Baker, Catherine Lee, Mara Greenberg, Michael Kuzniewicz, Monique Hedderson

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in O&G open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Shalmali BaneKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Fei XuKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Susanna MitroKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Heather ForquerKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Jennifer M BakerKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Catherine LeeKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Mara GreenbergKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Michael KuzniewiczKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.
Monique HeddersonKaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Pleasanton, California; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Department of Pediatrics, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California; and Regional Perinatal Service Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Santa Clara, California.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo describe trends in rates of pregnancy, live birth, and gestational outcomes and to assess variation by maternal demographic characteristics.

methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of pregnancies with outcomes at a large and diverse integrated health care system from 2012 to 2023. We calculated temporal trends in unadjusted and adjusted pregnancy rates and live birth rates per 1,000 individuals 15-44 years of age, overall and stratified by age and race and ethnicity. We used quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted for age and self-reported race and ethnicity to estimate the overall percentage change. We also assessed the rates of plurality (per 1,000 pregnancies) and gestational outcomes, including stillbirth, ectopic pregnancy, molar pregnancy, miscarriage, and induced abortion (per 1,000 singleton pregnancies).

resultsIn total, 700,159 pregnancies from 2012 to 2023 were included. The adjusted pregnancy rate declined from 78 per 1,000 individuals 15-44 years of age in 2012 to 70 in 2023 (-10.2% [95% CI, -15.6% to -4.5%]), and the adjusted live birth rate declined from 53 per 1,000 individuals 15-44 years of age in 2012 to 45 in 2023 (-13.8% [95% CI, -19.3% to -8.0%]). Among singleton pregnancies, the adjusted rates of miscarriage (2012 rate: 166.3 per 1,000 pregnancies; 2023 rate: 162.2 per 1,000 pregnancies, change -2.4% [95% CI, -4.2% to -0.6%]), molar pregnancy (2012 rate: 1.9 per 1,000 pregnancies; 2023 rate: 1.1 per 1,000 pregnancies, change -38.2% [95% CI, -52.1% to -20.2%]), and ectopic pregnancy (2012 rate: 16.7 per 1,000 pregnancies; 2023 rate: 16.3 per 1,000 pregnancies, change -10.3% [95% CI, -15.4% to -4.8%]) declined. The adjusted rate of stillbirth was relatively stable but rare (3.1 and 3.4 per 1,000 singleton pregnancies in 2012 and 2023, respectively; change 5.3% [95% CI, -7.1% to 19.3%]), whereas the adjusted rate of induced abortions increased over time by 27.3% (95% CI, 23.6% to 31.1%) from 133.2 per 1,000 pregnancies in 2012 to 172.4 per 1,000 pregnancies in 2023.

conclusionIn an integrated health care delivery system, the pregnancy and live birth rates declined in the past decade, mirroring national surveillance data. The greater decline in live birth rate compared with pregnancy rate may be explained by the higher rate of induced abortion because the rates of other gestational outcomes declined over time.

Identifiers

PMID42004043
PMCPMC13090078

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.