Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42000737›Full record

ArticleNPJ vaccines2026

Correlates of severe and delta COVID-19 in a phase 3 trial of the AZD1222 vaccine.

Holly Janes, Youyi Fong, Ying Huang, David Benkeser, Elizabeth J Kelly, Ian Hirsch, Ann Marie Stanley, Tonya Villafana, Christos J Petropoulos, Andrew Leith and 24 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ vaccines, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

34 authors.

Holly JanesVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Youyi FongVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ying HuangVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
David BenkeserDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Elizabeth J KellyTranslational Medicine, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
Ian HirschBiometrics, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK.
Ann Marie StanleyTranslational Medicine, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
Tonya VillafanaClinical Development, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
Christos J PetropoulosLabCorp-Monogram Biosciences, South San Francisco, CA, USA.
Andrew LeithNexelis, Seattle, WA, USA.
Deanne HaugaardNexelis, Seattle, WA, USA.
Bill WebbNexelis, Seattle, WA, USA.
Yiwen LuVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Chenchen YuVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Bhavesh BorateVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lars W P van der LaanVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nima S HejaziVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
April K RandhawaVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Michele P AndrasikVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
James G KublinVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Margaret Brewinski IsaacsDivision of AIDS, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Mamodikoe MakheneDivision of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Tina TongVaccine Research Program, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD, USA.
Merlin L RobbUS Military HIV Research Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Lawrence CoreyVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kathleen M NeuzilCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Dean FollmannBiostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Ann R FalseyDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA.
Magdalena E SobieszczykDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center and New York-Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, USA.
Richard A KoupVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Peter B GilbertVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA. pgilbert@fredhutch.org.
AstraZeneca AZD1222 Clinical Study Group
Immune Assays Team
United States Government (USG)/CoVPN Biostatistics Team

Funding

LOC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068614 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Dan H. Barouch, Lawrence Corey · 2011 to 2026
$1175.6M
SDMC: HIV Vaccine Trials NetworkUM1AI068635 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert, Yunda Huang · 2011 to 2026
$385.9M
Statistical Methods in HIV Vaccine Efficacy TrialsR37AI054165 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Peter B. Gilbert · 2010 to 2026
$6.7M
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases UM1 AI68614National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases UM1 AI68635NIAID NIH HHS R37 AI054165NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068614NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068635
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In the phase 3 AZD1222 COVID-19 vaccine trial, anti-Spike (vaccine-matched and Delta) binding IgG antibody concentration and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer (vaccine-matched+D614G and Delta), measured four weeks post-dose two (D57), were assessed as correlates of risk of severe COVID-19 and Delta COVID-19 over ~4 to ~13 months (severe) or ~11 months (Delta) post-D57. Using a case-control design, antibodies were measured in baseline SARS-CoV-2-negative per-protocol ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 recipients (19 severe COVID-19 cases, 57 Delta COVID-19 cases, 111 controls). The hazard ratio (HR) of severe COVID-19 per 10-fold vaccine-matched D57 marker increase was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.54; p = 0.004) for Spike IgG and 0.13 (0.03, 0.59; p = 0.009) for nAb titer. D57 Delta antibodies were weak correlates of Delta COVID-19: HR per 10-fold increase 0.70 (0.14, 3.47; p = 0.66) for Delta Spike IgG; 0.46 (0.14, 1.47; p = 0.19) for Delta nAb titer. Binding and nAb levels strongly predicted severe COVID-19, even with antibody waning.

Identifiers

PMID42000737
PMCPMC13276171

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.