Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41997986›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Target Trial Emulation of Vaccine Effectiveness in 5- to 17-years-olds with Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Yuqing Lei, Jiajie Chen, Qiong Wu, Ting Zhou, Bingyu Zhang, Michael J Becich, Yuriy Bisyuk, Saul Blecker, Elizabeth A Chrischilles, Dimitri A Christakis and 26 more

Abstract read
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

36 authors.

Yuqing Lei *Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Jiajie Chen *Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Qiong WuDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Ting ZhouDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3392-2979
Bingyu ZhangThe Center for Health AI and Synthesis of Evidence (CHASE), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Michael J BecichDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5998-8074
Yuriy BisyukUniversity Medical Center New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2380-4776
Saul BleckerDepartment of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Elizabeth A ChrischillesDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.
Dimitri A ChristakisCenter for Child Health, Behavior and Development, Seattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lindsay G CowellDepartment of Health Data Science and Biostatistics, Peter O'Donnell Jr. School of Public Health, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.
Mollie R CumminsCollege of Nursing, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7078-8479
Soledad A FernandezDepartment of Biomedical Informatics and Center for Biostatistics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-7848-9781
Daniel FortCenter for Outcomes Research, Ochsner Health, New Orleans, LA, USA.
Sandy L GonzalezNicklaus Children's Hospital, Miami, FL, USA.
Sharon J HerringProgram for Maternal Health Equity, Center for Health Justice and Bioethics, Departments of Population Sciences and Medicine, Lewis Katz School of Medicine at Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Benjamin D HorneIntermountain Medical Center Heart Institute, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2656-0263
Carol HorowitzInstitute for Health Equity Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Mei LiuDepartment of Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8036-2110
Susan KimUniversity of California, San Francisco, Division of Rheumatology, Benioff Children's Hospital, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Parsa MirhajiAlbert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
Abu Saleh Mohammad MosaDepartment of Biomedical Informatics and Data Science, Heersink School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Alabama, AL, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8956-1466
Jennifer A MuszynskiDivision of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH, USA.
Catharine I PaulesDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Hershey, PA, USA.
Alice I SatoDivision of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Nebraska and Children's Nebraska, Omaha, NE, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9827-201X
Hayden T SchwenkStanford School of Medicine, Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Stanford, CA, USA.
Soumitra SenguptaDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Srinivasan SureshDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Pittsburgh and UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Bradley W TaylorClinical and Translational Science Institute, The Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6414-4172
David A WilliamsDepartment of Anesthesiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-4895
Yongqun HeMedical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9189-9661
Jeffrey S MorrisDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8520-6088
Ravi JhaveriDivision of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Christopher B ForrestApplied Clinical Research Center, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Department of Healthcare Management, Perelman School of Medicine, the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA. forrestc@chop.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1252-068X
Yong ChenDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA. ychen123@pennmedicine.upenn.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0835-0788
RECOVER Consortium

Funding

Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, Inc.) OT2HL161847-01Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) RI-CHOP-01-PS10
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unclear, particularly for Omicron subvariants. We evaluate vaccine effectiveness against reinfection with Omicron BA.1/BA.2, BA.4/BA.5, XBB, and later subvariants among 5- to 17-year-olds using data from the RECOVER initiative, a national electronic health record database covering 37 U.S. children's hospitals and health institutions. We emulate target trials by age group and variant period, comparing previously infected participants between January 2022 and August 2023. During the BA.1/BA.2 period, vaccination reduces the risk of reinfection, with effectiveness rates of 62% in children and 65% in adolescents. During the BA.4/BA.5 period, protection effectiveness in children was 57%, whereas no statistically significant protection is observed in adolescents. During the XBB and later period, no significant protection is observed in either group. In summary, COVID-19 vaccination provides protection against reinfection during the early and mid-Omicron periods in previously infected pediatric populations, but effectiveness declines for later variants.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2Vaccine EfficacyAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansMaleReinfectionVaccinationCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID41997986

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.