Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41997706›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2026

Cost-effectiveness of osteoporotic fracture risk assessment in people with intellectual disabilities: a UK NHS modelling study.

May Ee Png, Valeria Frighi, Tim Adrian Holt, Felix Achana, Margaret C Smith, Gary Stephen Collins, Jan Roast, Stavros Petrou

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Development and external validation of prediction models for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in people with intellectual disability.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

May Ee PngNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5876-9363
Valeria FrighiDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, UK.
Tim Adrian HoltNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK timholt@nhs.net.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1214-1682
Felix AchanaNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Margaret C SmithNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0946-742X
Gary Stephen CollinsDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, England, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2772-2316
Jan RoastDimensions UK, Reading, UK.
Stavros PetrouNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesWe compared the cost-effectiveness of alternative fracture risk assessment strategies for people with intellectual disabilities (ID) aged ≥40 years from a UK National Health Services perspective over a lifetime horizon.

designCost-effectiveness analysis using a lifetime decision-analytical model.

settingUK primary care, with data from literature and national databases.

participantsPeople with ID.

interventionsThree strategies were assessed: (S1) Risk assessment using the UK QFracture score; (S2) use of IDFracture (a fracture risk prediction tool specifically developed for adults with ID); and (S3) conducting a one-time dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan in all. S1 and S2 were followed by DXA scan for those at risk. At-risk individuals received treatment according to UK practice (bisphosphonates plus vitamin D and calcium for osteoporosis, and vitamin D and calcium alone for osteopenia). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Direct healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

resultsIn the base case, S2 (ICER: -£2568/QALY) was dominant (ie, less costly and more effective) and S3 (ICER: £1678/QALY) was cost-effective relative to S1 for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF). For hip fracture, S2 (ICER: £32 116/QALY) and S3 (ICER: £49 536/QALY) were not cost-effective relative to S1 under the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-recommended cost-effectiveness thresholds. Findings from the sensitivity analyses were predominantly consistent with the base-case results. Subgroup analyses showed that age-specific and gender-specific strategies could be used.

conclusionFor people with ID aged ≥40 years, a proactive approach to risk assessment for MOF is not only clinically beneficial, but also cost-effective.

Indexed as

Intellectual DisabilityOsteoporotic FracturesAbsorptiometry, PhotonAdultAgedBone Density Conservation AgentsCost-Benefit AnalysisCost-Effectiveness AnalysisFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporosisPrimary Health CareQuality-Adjusted Life YearsBone Density Conservation AgentsVitamin DFractures, BoneGeneral PracticeHEALTH ECONOMICSPreventive Health ServicesVulnerable Populations

Identifiers

PMID41997706
PMCPMC13110644

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.