ArticleFrontiers in medicine2026
Development and internal validation of a LASSO-based clinical prediction model for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease versus pulmonary tuberculosis.
Article in Frontiers in medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: The rising global incidence of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) and its significant overlap with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in symptoms and imaging pose a major diagnostic challenge, often leading to misdiagnosis and inappropriate treatment. A reliable pre-culture predictive tool is urgently needed. Methods: In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we analyzed consecutive hospitalized patients with microbiologically confirmed NTM-PD ( Results: The LASSO regression identified six independent predictors for the final model: older age, female gender, absence of diabetes mellitus, presence of bronchiectasis, presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and presence of lung cavitation on HRCT. The model demonstrated good discrimination with an AUC of 0.846 (95% CI, 0.805-0.877) and excellent calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Conclusion: We developed and internally validated a parsimonious six-variable prediction model that effectively differentiates NTM-PD from PTB. Incorporating objective feature selection (LASSO) and rigorous validation, this tool can aid clinicians in raising early suspicion for NTM-PD, optimizing diagnostic pathways, and preventing misdiagnosis while awaiting culture results.
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