Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41992235›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2026

A dynamically consistent discrete-time model for monkeypox transmission with implications for quarantine policies.

Kemal Türk, Mehmet Gümüş

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Kemal TürkDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, 67100, Zonguldak, Türkiye.
Mehmet GümüşDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, 67100, Zonguldak, Türkiye. m.gumus@beun.edu.tr.ORCID 0000-0002-7447-479X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral infection with significant public health implications. Since epidemiological data are typically reported in discrete time intervals and public health interventions are implemented at specific decision points, discrete-time models provide a natural and policy-relevant modeling framework. Although numerous mathematical models for Mpox have been developed using differential equations, discrete-time approaches remain relatively unexplored, despite their practical importance. In this study, we introduce a discrete-time framework for Mpox by constructing a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme that preserves the key dynamical properties of the corresponding continuous model. The preservation of positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium behavior is particularly important for decision-support models, as numerical artifacts may otherwise lead to misleading interpretations in applied health and policy contexts. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is explicitly computed and shown to depend on the human and animal reproduction numbers, denoted by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively. Three equilibrium states are identified, and both the local and global dynamics of the system around these equilibria are rigorously analyzed. It is demonstrated that the condition [Formula: see text] alone may not be sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. Furthermore, it is proven that the condition [Formula: see text] is sufficient for the persistence of the disease in both human and animal populations. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to quantify the impact of model parameters on disease transmission dynamics. This analysis provides a clear interpretation of how quarantine measures and contact-reduction strategies influence disease persistence in human and animal populations. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical findings and provide a comparative assessment of the proposed NSFD scheme against standard methods such as Euler and Runge-Kutta. The time-step-independent nature of the proposed framework ensures robust numerical outcomes and provides a reliable tool for supporting evidence-based public health decision-making and the evaluation of quarantine-oriented intervention strategies.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalMpox, MonkeypoxQuarantineBasic Reproduction NumberHumansDecision-support modelingDiscrete-time epidemic modelMonkeypox (Mpox)Nonstandard finite difference schemeNumerical stabilityQuarantine strategiesZoonotic disease transmission

Identifiers

PMID41992235
PMCPMC13220383

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.