Acknowledging a Global South phenological science: the use of phenological and meteorological indicators in indigenous knowledge systems in Rural South Africa.

The majority of published phenological research relies on what is perceived to be scientifically robust sources of data – ground-based observations, webcams and remote sensing. This has resulted in a body pf phenological literature which remains skewed to the Global North. In much of the Global South, phenological events have been a key component of inter-generational Indigenous Knowledge Systems surrounding the daily and seasonal weather forecasting for small-scale agriculture. Under climate change, this critical awareness of the natural environment and the use of phenology to mark seasonal change can lead to a more rapid adaptation to changes missed by meteorological forecasting in the short term, while local extirpation of key indicator species limits long-term efficacy. This study explores these issues in the context of two small indigenous rural communities in South Africa who are heavily reliant on rainfed subsistence agriculture. Across both communities, observations of phenological events, weather and astronomical conditions are used by farmers to inform the timing of sowing, harvesting, and the selection of crops. However, the disappearance of key indicator species is threatening this approach, with the community raising concerns about the anthropogenic influence. These results demonstrate the critical value of indigenous knowledge as part of the phenological discourse, particularly in the face of global change.