ArticleFrontiers in public health2026
Trends and age-period-cohort analysis of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis: a population-based study in Hunan Province, China, 2009-2023.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Trends in the incidence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), a primary source of transmission, are important for targeted prevention and control. Hunan Province is a high-PTB-burden region in China. However, conventional trend analyses cannot separate the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort, and this question has not been specifically examined in Hunan Province. Methods: Using PTB surveillance data from Hunan Province (2009-2023), this study combined joinpoint regression and an age-period-cohort (APC) model to assess long-term trends in the reported incidence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB and quantify the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results: Over the study period, the age-standardized reported incidence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB declined (average annual percent change [AAPC], -2.20%). This decrease was more marked among males (AAPC, -2.54%), whereas the decline among females was not statistically significant. The decline plateaued after 2017, with an inflection point in 2020. APC analysis indicated a bimodal age pattern, with peaks in the 20-24 and 80-84-year age groups. The increase in incidence with age was greatest in the oldest age group. The period effects were statistically significant. The post-2017 plateau may be associated with changes in diagnostic practices and/or reporting, and the 2020 inflection point coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic. Cohort effects showed that risk peaked in the 1949-1953 birth cohort and then declined steadily; however, among females, cohorts born after 1994 showed early indications of a possible increasing risk. Conclusion: APC analysis of bacteriologically confirmed PTB in Hunan Province showed a shifting epidemiology. These findings suggest that tuberculosis control efforts should prioritize the increasing burden in older adults and closely monitor younger female cohorts for possible increases in risk. These results may help refine interventions for high-risk groups and optimize surveillance strategies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.