Why do Public Debates Escalate? Trigger Points and the Moral Dynamics of "Hot Politics".

Escalating, emotionally charged, and moralized forms of controversy are a central feature of contemporary politics. Our study develops a framework for understanding how political debates between ordinary citizens become heated; why certain issues provoke particularly strong emotions; and how this affective potential is weaponized by "polarization entrepreneurs" in politics and the media. Based on an analysis of focus group discussions conducted in Germany, we identify recurring dynamics of affective escalation which we call trigger points. Trigger points are discursive breaches in which ordinary disagreement turns into affectively charged "hot politics". Observing how debates escalate, the study argues that trigger points derive their affective potential from the violation of widely shared, implicit moral expectations. Specifically, we identify four widely recurring trigger points, each of which is rooted in a distinct set of moral expectations: "unequal treatments" (equality), "disrupted normality" (normality); "behavioral impositions" (autonomy); and "threatened boundaries" (control). Trigger points thus reveal a moral deep structure of public opinion. In this way, the concept helps bridge macro-level diagnoses of polarized publics and micro-level evidence showing that most citizens are only intermittently politicized. Trigger points illuminate how controversies between ordinary citizens can become charged with affects like anger, fear or disgust, without presupposing coherent ideologies or stable partisanship. More broadly, the framework offers a tool for analyzing wedge issues, perceived polarization, and the strategic emotionalization of politics by political entrepreneurs.