Enhancing Species Distribution Models by Considering Dispersal Ability.

Climate change is driving shifts in species' geographic ranges, and understanding these changes is critical for effective biodiversity conservation. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the potential distribution of a given species under climate change. However, most studies focus solely on shifts in suitable habitats without considering whether species can reach these areas within a relevant timeframe. This omission often results in overestimation of future distributions and underestimation of extinction risk. Here, we designed an experiment to assess the impact of dispersal constraints on SDM predictions using 10 species with varying dispersal abilities. We compared the potential future distribution of species under two scenarios: the first, incorporating their dispersal ability and the second, assuming unlimited dispersal. Our results demonstrate that ignoring dispersal leads to an overprediction of suitable habitats for species, which may result in underestimating species extinction risk or overestimating the risk of range expansions by invasive species. This underscores the critical need to integrate dispersal dynamics into SDMs to enhance the accuracy of biodiversity projections. By incorporating realistic movement constraints, SDMs can provide more reliable predictions, leading to improved conservation planning, better management of invasive species, and more effective biodiversity conservation efforts under climate change.