ArticleBMC public health2026
Long-term trends in DM and dementia-related mortality among middle-aged and elderly adults in the United States, 1999-2023: a nationwide population-based study.
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundDiabetes mellitus (DM) and dementia frequently coexist in middle-aged and elderly people, jointly amplifying mortality risk. Clarifying long-term mortality patterns is essential for informing prevention and resource allocation.
methodsWe conducted a nationwide, population-based analysis using CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death data (1999-2023). Population mortality rates were calculated among decedents with both DM (ICD-10 E10-E14) and dementia (F01, F03, G30) recorded on the death certificate. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were standardized to the 2000 U.S. POPULATION: Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression and ARIMA models stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, region, and urbanization.
resultsA total of 749,517 DM and dementia-related deaths occurred during 1999-2023, with AAMR rising from 12.05 to 30.95 per 100,000 (AAPC = 3.48%, P < 0.05). Males and NH Black individuals consistently demonstrated the highest mortality. Rural areas showed persistently elevated AAMRs, alongside marked interstate variation.
conclusionDM and Dementia-related mortality among U.S. adults aged ≥ 45 years increased nearly 2.57-fold over the past two decades, with enduring sex, racial, and geographic disparities. Strengthening equitable, community-based preventive strategies and integrated metabolic-cognitive care is urgently needed.
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