ArticleFrontiers in cell and developmental biology2026
Identifying key determinants of cumulative live birth in women with ovarian endometrioma undergoing ethanol sclerotherapy followed by
Article in Frontiers in cell and developmental biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Ovarian endometriomas impair ovarian reserve and fertility in women of reproductive age. Ethanol sclerotherapy is a fertility-preserving alternative to surgery. Nonetheless, predicting cumulative live birth rates after Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 194 patients with ovarian endometriomas who underwent ultrasound-guided ethanol sclerotherapy before Results: The cumulative live birth rate was 50.0% (97/194). Five predictors were identified: antral follicle count, progesterone level on gonadotropin starting day, downregulation, cyst diameter, and previous live birth history. The Extreme Gradient Boosting model showed optimal performance, with an AUC of 0.830 (95% confidence interval: 0.719-0.941), sensitivity of 0.783, specificity of 0.750, and Brier score of 0.176. SHapley analysis revealed that a higher antral follicle count and downregulation positively impacted birth prediction, whereas elevated progesterone levels and larger cyst diameters had negative effects. Conclusion: We developed an explainable Extreme Gradient Boosting model for predicting cumulative live birth rates in women with ovarian endometriomas after ethanol sclerotherapy and assisted reproductive technology. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified key predictors and revealed their non-linear contributions to outcomes, providing transparent explanations for predictions. This interpretable machine learning approach offers a clinical decision-support tool for patient counseling and treatment optimization, advancing beyond traditional methods in capturing reproductive outcomes.
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