Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41968496›Full record

ArticleCancer2026

Early cancer detection in a large American Cancer Society cohort study: Retrospective analysis of methylated DNA biomarkers.

Alpa V Patel, Gregory Alexander, William L Dahut, Emily L Deubler, Eric T Fung, Earl Hubbell, Rong Jiang, Cari Lichtman, Charles Swanton, Lauren R Teras and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Modeled Sojourn Time and Sensitivity for Detecting Preclinical Cancers Retrospectively by a Multicancer Early Detection Test.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026
    Article
  2. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Alpa V PatelAmerican Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9997-1218
Gregory AlexanderIndependent Statistical Consultant, San Francisco, California, USA.
William L DahutAmerican Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Emily L DeublerAmerican Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Eric T FungGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.
Earl HubbellGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.
Rong JiangGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.
Cari LichtmanAmerican Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Charles SwantonFrancis Crick Institute and University College London Hospitals, London, UK.
Lauren R TerasAmerican Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Oliver VennGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.
Nan ZhangGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.
Christina A ClarkeGRAIL, Inc., Menlo Park, California, USA.

Funding

GRAIL, Inc.
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCancer biobank studies can inform the natural history of cancer and possibilities for earlier detection. The authors investigated the detectability of a cell-free DNA methylation-based cancer signal in biobanked plasma samples from the large American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study 3.

methodsIn total, 303,692 participants provided a blood sample at enrollment (2006-2013) and were followed for cancer incidence and mortality through state cancer registries. Samples were obtained from participants with and without a diagnosis of cancer (up to 3 years after enrollment), and their prediagnostic plasma samples were tested for cancer signals.

resultsFor 1371 participants without cancer, zero cancer signals were detected. For 1383 participants who were diagnosed with cancer within a 3-year period, cancer signal detection depended on the time between blood draw and cancer diagnosis. Among all cancers, detectability was 15.2%, 6.0%, and 2.3% for samples collected 1, 2, and 3 year(s) before diagnosis, respectively. Among cancers that went on to be fatal, detectability was 55.1%, 21.6%, and 5.1%, respectively; among nonfatal cancers, detectability was 10.2%, 4.1%, and 1.8%, respectively. Cancer signal detection occurred, on average, 323 days before clinical diagnosis, with 40% of signal detections occurring greater than 1 year prior, including some cases up to 3 years prior.

conclusionsCancer signal detection rates change rapidly as lead time approaches clinical diagnosis. The average lead time of approximately 1 year supports annual screening intervals.

Indexed as

Biomarkers, TumorDNA MethylationEarly Detection of CancerNeoplasmsAdultAgedAmerican Cancer SocietyFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesUnited StatesBiomarkers, Tumorcancer early detectioncancer prevention studycell‐free DNApreclinicalprospective cohortretrospective study

Identifiers

PMID41968496
PMCPMC13071229

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.