Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41963597›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of cancer2026

Alcohol-attributable cancer risk and burden estimates for Australia's updated alcohol consumption guidelines.

Peter Sarich, Karen Canfell, Sam Egger, Emily Banks, Grace Joshy, Lyndal Wellard-Cole, Clare Hughes, Nehmat Houssami, Paul Grogan, Marianne F Weber

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Article in British journal of cancer, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Peter SarichCancer Elimination Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Newtown, NSW, Australia. peter.sarich@sydney.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9596-6825
Karen CanfellCancer Elimination Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Newtown, NSW, Australia.
Sam EggerThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Emily BanksNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Grace JoshyNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0718-6368
Lyndal Wellard-ColeCancer Prevention and Advocacy Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1514-2135
Clare HughesCancer Prevention and Advocacy Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Nehmat HoussamiThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3641-952X
Paul GroganCancer Elimination Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Newtown, NSW, Australia.
Marianne F WeberCancer Elimination Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Newtown, NSW, Australia.

Funding

Cancer Council NSW (Cancer Council New South Wales) 45 and Up PhD Scholarship in Cancer ResearchDepartment of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) 1136128Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) 1194410Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) 1194679National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF) EC-21-001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Australian alcohol health guidelines were revised in 2020 to recommend a maximum of 10 drinks/week. We calculated estimates of cancer caused by alcohol use in Australia for the updated recommended limits.

methodsCox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for cancer incidence in relation to self-reported alcohol consumption (drinks/week) among 225,805 participants aged ≥45 years (2005-2009) in the New South Wales (NSW) 45 and Up Study, an Australian prospective cohort study (baseline n = 267,357). Cumulative absolute risk of cancer to age 85 years was estimated using 0 to <1 drink/week as the comparator. Population attributable fractions were calculated using Australian national alcohol consumption and cancer incidence data, compared to a theoretical minimum risk exposure of no alcohol consumption. Cancer cases and deaths were ascertained through record linkage to the NSW Cancer Registry and NSW Registry of Births Deaths & Marriages to 2019. Participants diagnosed with cancer pre-baseline were excluded.

resultsOver a median 11.4 years, 34,860 cancer cases were recorded. When modelled as a continuous variable, alcohol-related cancer risk increased by 19% for every ten drinks/week increase in consumption (HR: 1.19; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-1.23). By age 85 years, those who consumed >10 drinks/week had an estimated 4.9% higher cumulative absolute risk of an alcohol-related cancer compared to those consuming 0 to <1 drink/week. An estimated 7804 cancer cases (4.6% of all cancer cases) were attributable to alcohol use in 2024.

conclusionsThe proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers in Australia is substantial and somewhat higher than previously estimated.

Indexed as

Alcohol DrinkingNeoplasmsAgedAged, 80 and overAustraliaFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNew South WalesProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID41963597
PMCPMC13270007

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.