Biophysical and sociodemographic determinants of green infrastructure (GI) spatial distribution in Gdańsk, Poland.

Urbanization and climate change are intensifying environmental challenges in cities, necessitating innovative approaches to manage stormwater, mitigate urban heat, and enhance ecosystem services. Green Infrastructure (GI) has emerged as an effective solution to combat these challenges, yet research on GI spatial distribution is limited, and it remains unclear what factors drive or constrain their placement in cities. This study investigates the spatial distribution of GI in Gdańsk, Poland, employing a grid-based econometric framework to understand its relationship with biophysical and sociodemographic factors. GI density exhibits strong spatial clustering, with high density areas found to be in the western and eastern regions occupying state forests and low-density regions are found in northern, central urban areas, and parts of southern regions. Regression models, including ordinary least squares, spatial lag/error, and geographically weighted regression, indicated that GI distribution is constrained by urbanization indicator (impervious surface), while heat exposure (LST), and air quality variables (NO2, O3) act as spatial stress indicators that co-occur with areas of low GI with geographically varying effects. The findings align with the Gdańsk Greenery Policy (2023) but also highlight additional areas where GI provision can be expanded to improve climate adaptation, environmental equity and urban livability. The framework demonstrates how spatial data can support municipal decision-making and underscores the value of integrating environmental and socio-economic indicators into GI planning.