Genomic-epidemiological analysis of 15 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals accelerated fitness gain of JN.1 lineage.

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has been driven by successive globally circulating waves, including the Alpha and Delta lineages, early Omicron (BA.1-BA.5), XBB, and the recently dominant JN.1 lineages. Although the marked advantage in fitness of early Omicron over Delta lineages has been recognized, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 fitness across 2020 to 2025. Here, we analyzed 15.23 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes available through May 2025. The accumulation of mutations in the spike protein of the virus has continued to accelerate over time, whereas the trend slowed in the other viral proteins. Using a Bayesian genomic-epidemiological framework, we estimated that lineage fitness increased approximately linearly from 2021 to 2025. Notably, JN.1 lineages exhibited a significantly higher rate of fitness gain than their predecessor XBB and earlier Omicron lineages. We further analyzed characteristic mutations of JN.1 and found that those in the receptor-binding domain were associated with larger alterations in residue hydropathy, charge, and structural surface exposure relative to other lineages. These findings suggest JN.1 as a distinct evolutionary stage and underscore the importance of sustained genomic surveillance.