ArticleEuropean journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society2026
A machine-learning-based tool for stroke risk prediction in blunt cerebrovascular injury: development and preliminary evaluation.
Article in European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeStroke risk correlates with the Biffl grading system in blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI). Although anti-thrombotic therapy is the mainstay of stroke prevention, no point-of-care clinical decision-support tool exists to guide timing for therapy. We sought to develop an interactive online calculator that incorporates patient-specific demographic and injury characteristics to estimate stroke risk and risk reduction with anti-thrombotic (AT) administration.
methodsData from BCVI patients (n = 1,197) at a Level I Trauma Center were retrospectively collected. Six machine learning methods were employed to predict stroke risk with and without AT therapy. Class imbalance was addressed using downsampling and/or class weighting. Model performance was assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. The model was implemented as an R-based Shiny online application.
resultsStroke rate among the population was 4%, and the strongest predictors for stroke were the greatest Biffl grade of carotid (aOR [95%CI] = 2.02 [1.62-2.53]) and vertebral injuries (1.44 [1.18-1.77]). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model outperformed all others, achieving 66% [33%-100%] sensitivity and 74% [62%-82%] specificity for stroke prediction, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 [0.57-0.95]. This model was integrated into an interactive online tool ( https://grady-bcvi-calc.shinyapps.io/calculator/ ), where patient demographic and injury characteristics can be used to compute baseline stroke risk and estimate stroke risk with AT.
conclusionWe developed and evaluated a preliminary predictive model for personalized stroke risk assessment in patients with BCVI using key risk factors. The integration of patient-specific risk-benefit assessments into clinical decision-making could optimize and reduce variability in AT therapy. External validation is warranted to prepare this tool for broad clinical applicability.
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