Stimulus dependencies-rather than next-word prediction-can explain pre-onset brain encoding in naturalistic listening designs.

The human brain is thought to constantly predict future words during language processing. Recently, a new approach emerged that aims to capture neural prediction directly by using vector representations of words (embeddings) to predict brain activity prior to word onset. Two findings have been proposed as hallmarks of neural next-word prediction: (i) significant encoding prior to word onset and (ii) its modulation by word predictability. However, natural language is rife with temporal correlations, where upcoming words share statistical information with preceding ones. This raises a critical question: Do these hallmarks emerge from the brain actively predicting future content, or might they be equally well explained by the regression model exploiting these inherent stimulus dependencies? To distinguish between these alternatives, we applied the same encoding analysis to passive control systems, i.e., representational systems that encode the stimulus but cannot predict upcoming words. We show that both hallmarks emerge in two such control systems, namely in word embeddings themselves and in speech acoustics. We further show that proposed methods to correct for these dependencies are insufficient, as the effects persist even after such corrections. Together, these results suggest that pre-onset prediction of brain activity might reflect dependencies in natural language rather than predictive computations. This questions the extent to which this new encoding-based method can be used to study prediction in the brain.