Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41959714›Full record

ArticleAmerican economic journal. Economic policy2025

The Long-Run Effects of California's Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data

Martha Bailey, Tanya Byker, Elena Patel, Shanthi Ramnath

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American economic journal. Economic policy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Mandated Sick Pay: Coverage, Utilization, and Crowding-in.Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025
    Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Martha BaileyUniversity of California Los Angeles, Department of Economics.
Tanya BykerMiddlebury College, Department of Economics.
Elena PatelUniversity of Utah Eccles School of Business.
Shanthi RamnathFederal Reserve of Chicago.

Funding

TRAINING IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHYT32HD007339 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Sarah A. Burgard · 1987 to 2026
$14.9M
Scientific and Technical CoreP2CHD041022 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Martha Jane Bailey · 2016 to 2026
$6.9M
Scientific/Technical CoreP2CHD041028 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Sarah A. Burgard · 2017 to 2026
$6.5M
NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD041022NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD041028NICHD NIH HHS T32 HD007339
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California's 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women's employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings a decade after they gave birth.

Indexed as

H24J13J16J31J32K31

Identifiers

PMID41959714
PMCPMC13061297

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.