Keeping Pace With Intensifying Agricultural Field Inundation Events: A Framework for Testing the Mitigative Capacity of Current Best Management Practices.

According to data from the USDA's Risk Management Agency, crop insurance indemnities related to precipitation, hurricanes, excess moisture, and field inundation have totaled approximately $3.65 billion across Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa over the past decade. Of this amount, an estimated $924 million (25.31%) was attributed to losses that occurred in the spring months. Cover crops and conservation tillage have been recommended as best management practices to mitigate financial impacts by reducing nutrient losses from erosion, runoff, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, preventing disease and physical plant damage, and enhancing field access through improved landscape drainage. However, further intensification of field inundation events is projected in these three states as we approach the midcentury, which may lessen the mitigative capacity of these practices. Few studies have tested the resilience of these land management practices to intensifying field inundation. We propose a framework that integrates guiding research questions and field experiments to determine whether the mitigative capacity of cover crops and conservation tillage keeps pace with intensifying field inundation events. We also explore agricultural biologicals, precision agriculture, the introduction of perennial crops, and drainage management as measures to address inefficiencies associated with the mitigative capacity of cover crops and conservation tillage that may be identified during experimentation. This effort expands recommended best management practices and provides stakeholders with more options in an uncertain future due to climate change.