ArticleBMC cardiovascular disorders2026
Risk estimation of cardiovascular disease in Qatar's primary care settings: application of QRISK3 algorithm and sociodemographic predictors.
Article in BMC cardiovascular disorders, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Despite high prevalence of metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in Qatar, no locally validated risk prediction tool exists. This study aimed to explore the 10-year demographic patterns of CVD risk using the QRISK3 algorithm in Qatar’s primary care setting and identify key predictors of high risk.
methodsA cross-sectional study was conducted among adults (> 18 years) registered with the Primary Health Care Corporation (PHCC). QRISK3 scores were calculated for participants without established CVD using demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. High risk was defined as QRISK3 ≥ 10%. Multiple Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors.
resultsOf 1,606 eligible participants, 15.6% had at least one CVD and another 24.5% were classified as high risk according to QRISK3, indicating that approximately 40% of adults assessed required some form of preventive or secondary care interventions. Age was the strongest predictor of high-risk group (OR = 612.6 for ≥ 60 years compared to < 40 years), followed by male sex (OR = 5.8), Southern Asian nationality (OR = 6.8), Class II obesity (OR = 6.4), and residence in Doha (OR = 2.3). The final model was 85.5% accurate in predicting the QRISK3 calculated group membership.
conclusionsSlightly less than one-third (29%) of adults without established CVD in Qatar’s primary care settings are at high predicted risk, highlighting the need for targeted prevention strategies. The study further advocates the significance and utility of QRISK3 as a risk-exploration tool for guiding prevention efforts. Its integration into routine primary care assessment may support early identification of individuals who would benefit from lifestyle counselling, risk factor modification, and targeted clinical & preventive interventions.
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