Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41951907›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of colorectal disease2026

Risk factors and prediction model for post-polypectomy metachronous colorectal adenoma.

Jiuyue Ma, Qian Zhang, Jiayi Su, Yun Wang, Wenkun Li, Minsi Zhou, Haiyun Shi, Kuiliang Liu, Jing Wu

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of colorectal disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Jiuyue MaDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Qian ZhangDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Jiayi SuDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Yun WangDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Wenkun LiDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Minsi ZhouDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China.
Haiyun ShiDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China. shihaiyun1016@gmail.com.
Kuiliang LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China. kuiliangliu@ccmu.edu.cn.
Jing WuDepartment of Gastroenterology, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Health, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Key Laboratory of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer Medicine and Medical Devices, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100050, China. wujing36youyi@ccmu.edu.cn.

Funding

Beijing Science and Technology Program Z211100002921028Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research CFH2022-2-2025 and 2020-4-2085National Key Research and Development Plan 2022YFC3602104scientific culture program of Beijing municipal hospital PX202010101
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundEndoscopic resection of colorectal adenomas helps reduce colorectal cancer mortality. However, post-polypectomy metachronous adenomas may reduce the sufficiency of colonoscopy scanning.

aimTo explore the risk factors for post-polypectomy metachronous colorectal adenoma and establish a risk prediction model.

methodsThis retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent colonoscopy at Beijing Friendship Hospital from January 2013 to January 2023. Data on patients' demographics, laboratory results, colonoscopy findings, and pathology reports were collected. The enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. LASSO analysis was employed to identify risk factors for metachronous adenomas. Based on these risk factors, a Cox regression model was used to create a risk prediction model. The C-index was calculated to assess the model's prediction accuracy, while time-dependent ROC (td-ROC) curves and calibration curves evaluated model predictive performance. A Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was conducted to assess clinical utility.

resultsA total of 523 patients meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled and randomly divided into a training set (n = 366) and a validation set (n = 157). Twenty-one clinical and pathological features were included in the LASSO regression analysis. Among these, age, gender, baseline adenoma size, baseline adenoma location, baseline pathological grade, history of hypertension, and serum LDL level were included in the multivariable Cox regression analysis, leading to the establishment of a visualized nomogram model. The C-index of the predictive model was 0.729 (95% CI: 0.686, 0.772) in the training set and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.667, 0.781) in the validation set. The time-dependent ROC curve and calibration curve indicated good reliability of the model, and the DCA curve suggested satisfactory clinical utility. An online webserver was also constructed to visualize the model and facilitate the calculation of metachronous adenoma risk for clinicians (URL: https://colorectal-metachronous-adenoma-prediction.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/ ).

conclusionA total of 7 risk factors for post-polypectomy metachronous adenoma were identified. A risk prediction model that possesses good prediction accuracy and good clinical utility was established, providing a reliable tool for patient risk stratification.

Indexed as

AdenomaColonic PolypsColorectal NeoplasmsNeoplasms, Second PrimaryAgedColonoscopyFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsROC CurveColorectal adenomaMetachronous adenomaPrediction modelRisk factor

Identifiers

PMID41951907
PMCPMC13180775

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.