Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41949058›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2026

Mild cognitive impairment-to-Alzheimer's dementia progression risk: the contribution of the Interceptor project.

Flavia L Lombardo, Naike Caraglia, Patrizia Lorenzini, Nicola Vanacore, Stefano F Cappa, Maria Cotelli, Francesco Iodice, Camillo Marra, Francesca Miraglia, Chiara Pappalettera and 8 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Flavia L LombardoNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy.
Naike CaragliaMemory Clinic, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "A. Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
Patrizia LorenziniNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy.
Nicola VanacoreNational Centre for Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy.
Stefano F CappaIUSS Cognitive Neuroscience (ICoN) Center University Institute of Advanced Studies IUSS, Pavia, Italy.
Maria CotelliNeuropsychology Unit, IRCCS Istituto Centro San Giovanni di Dio Fatebenefratelli, Brescia, Italy.
Francesco IodiceDepartment of Neuroscience and Neurorehabilitation, IRCCS San Raffaele, Rome, Italy.
Camillo MarraMemory Clinic, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "A. Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy.
Francesca MiragliaDepartment of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy.
Chiara PappaletteraDepartment of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy.
Daniela PeraniNuclear Medicine Unit Ospedale San Raffaele, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
Davide QuarantaDepartment of Psychology, Catholic University of Sacred Heart, Milan, Italy.
Alberto RedolfiLaboratory of Neuroinformatics, IRCCS Istituto Centro San Giovanni di Dio Fatebenefratelli, Brescia, Italy.
Patrizia SpadinAssociazione Italiana Malattia di Alzheimer, AIMA, Milan, Italy.
Fabrizio TagliaviniDepartment of Clinical Neurosciences, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico "Carlo Besta", Milan, Italy.
Fabrizio VecchioDepartment of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, eCampus University, Novedrate, Italy.
Paolo Maria RossiniDepartment of Neuroscience and Neurorehabilitation, IRCCS San Raffaele, Rome, Italy.
INTERCEPTOR Network

Funding

Italian Medicines AgencyItalian Ministry of Health
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an intermediate stage between normal and pathological brain aging, with 30% to 50% progressing to dementia within 3 to 5 years. Early identification of individuals at high risk of progression is crucial for public health strategies.

methodsThe INTERCEPTOR project included 398 MCI individuals. Baseline assessment included harmonized procedures for sociodemographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic (apolipoprotein E), cerebrospinal fluid (amyloid beta tau), electroencephalogram (brain connectivity), magnetic resonance imaging (hippocampal volumetry), and fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. The baseline and follow-up were completed by 351 individuals with MCI with neuropsychological tests every 6 months for 3 years.

resultsDementia developed in 104 individuals (29.6%), including 85 (22.4%) who met core clinical criteria for probable and possible Alzheimer's disease dementia. A Cox model combining clinical and sociodemographic data achieved a concordance index of 72%, which increased to 82% when neuropsychology and biomarkers were added. DISCUSSION: The INTERCEPTOR nomogram represents a tool for predicting dementia progression risk, supporting public health strategies, including screening for risk assessment and risk/benefit ratio in innovative treatments.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseCognitive DysfunctionDisease ProgressionAgedAged, 80 and overAmyloid beta-PeptidesBiomarkersBrainElectroencephalographyFemaleHumansMagnetic Resonance ImagingMaleNeuropsychological TestsPositron-Emission TomographyRisk FactorsAmyloid beta-PeptidesBiomarkerstau ProteinsAlzheimer's diseasebiomarkersdementiamild cognitive impairmentnomogramprognostic modelpublic health strategiesrisk stratification

Identifiers

PMID41949058
PMCPMC13058921

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.